1 Introduction

This paper contains estimates for the effective reproduction number \(R_{t,m}\) over time \(t\) in various states \(m\) of Australia. This is done using the methodology as described in [1]. These have been implemented in R using EpiEstim package [2] which is what is used here. The methodology and assumptions are described in more detail here.

This paper and it’s results should be updated roughly daily and is available online.

2 Updates

As this paper is updated over time this section will summarise significant changes. The code producing this paper is tracked using Git. The Git commit hash for this project at the time of generating this paper was 23afed4db62d9f1dec33612783ec9e10150e9e97.

The following major updates have been made:

  • Initial code on 29 December 2021

3 Data

3.1 Data Source

Data data is extracted from covid19data.com.au [3]. This contains the daily cases, tests and deaths for Australia nationally and by state. It also contains numbers currently in hospital, ICU and on ventilators Note this data does not contain daily admissions.

This report contains data up to 2022-01-17.

3.2 Data Fixes

The following fixes are applied to case, deaths and test data:

  1. Anywhere a cumulative figures that are lower than the day before are removed. These are probably usually due to corrections on previous days data.
  2. Data capturing issues and the removal of figures under the point in above results in gaps in the daily data. These are filled by linear interpolation of cumulative figures between the available dates.
  3. Daily counts are calculated using differences of cumulative figures.
  4. Hospitalisation, ICU and ventilator figures are not adjusted.

4 Methodology

The methodology is described in detail here. Here we estimate the effective reproduction number on cases.

5 Results

5.1 National

5.1.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.1.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Australia - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Australia - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Australia - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Australia - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Percentage Testing Positives by State (7-day moving average)

Percentage Testing Positives by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-26 379 376 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-02 641 551 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-12 1,809 2,310 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 50,578 72,990 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-11 68,823 71,410
2022-01-12 71,846 67,450
2022-01-13 81,019 65,080
2022-01-14 66,635 64,204
2022-01-15 60,192 NA
2022-01-16 56,464 NA
2022-01-17 44,447 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average daily case is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Australian Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Cases by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Cases for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 460 415 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-16 680 683 Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-25 1,529 1,524 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 3,544 3,567
2022-01-11 3,865 3,785
2022-01-12 4,000 3,998
2022-01-13 4,227 4,204
2022-01-14 4,426 4,418 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 4,603 NA
2022-01-16 4,761 NA
2022-01-17 5,046 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Hospital Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Hospital Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-05 96 90 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-06 96 90 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-08 53 53 Wave 2 Peak
2020-08-09 51 53 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-15 311 304 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 325 312
2022-01-11 342 332
2022-01-12 350 345
2022-01-13 350 358
2022-01-14 363 371 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 386 NA
2022-01-16 392 NA
2022-01-17 411 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily ICU Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Daily ICU Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-13 46 40 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-14 44 40 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-08 35 34 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-15 174 176 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 90 87
2022-01-11 92 94
2022-01-12 103 99
2022-01-13 109 106
2022-01-14 116 111 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 113 NA
2022-01-16 120 NA
2022-01-17 121 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Ventilator Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Ventilator Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-05 5 4 Wave 1 Peak
2020-09-01 5 22 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-20 19 15 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 22 31
2022-01-11 27 36
2022-01-12 49 41
2022-01-13 56 43
2022-01-14 56 45 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 54 NA
2022-01-16 40 NA
2022-01-17 31 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Deaths by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Deaths for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

Daily Deaths for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Australian Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.1.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Australia Wave 1 28.5% 15.8% 1.2% 1.40%
Australia Wave 2 8.3% 4.2% 2.2% 3.57%
Australia Wave 3 18.6% 9.5% 0.9% 0.61%
Australia Wave 4 10.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.06%

5.1.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australia cases 64,204 2022-01-17 0.94 [0.91 - 0.97]
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by State
State Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australian Capital Territory cases 1,045 2022-01-17 0.86 [0.81 - 0.91]
New South Wales cases 25,764 2022-01-17 0.84 [0.81 - 0.87]
Northern Territory cases 368 2022-01-17 1.15 [1.05 - 1.26]
Queensland cases 13,847 2022-01-17 1.23 [1.16 - 1.32]
South Australia cases 3,595 2022-01-17 0.96 [0.94 - 0.99]
Tasmania cases 371 2022-01-17 0.55 [0.49 - 0.63]
Victoria cases 19,203 2022-01-17 0.93 [0.90 - 0.98]
Western Australia cases 10 2022-01-17 1.16 [0.90 - 1.44]
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number based on Cases by State

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number based on Cases by State

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australia since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australia since 1 April 2020

5.2 Australian Capital Territory

5.2.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.2.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Australian Capital Territory - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Australian Capital Territory - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.2.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-10-04 28 39 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 1,072 1,377 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-11 2,058 1,294
2022-01-12 1,053 1,184
2022-01-13 1,302 1,073
2022-01-14 829 1,045
2022-01-15 575 NA
2022-01-16 622 NA
2022-01-17 878 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Australian Capital Territory on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-10-22 20 20 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 25 25
2022-01-11 28 25
2022-01-12 23 26
2022-01-13 24 28
2022-01-14 27 32 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 30 NA
2022-01-16 41 NA
2022-01-17 52 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-10-22 11 10 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 4 4
2022-01-11 4 4
2022-01-12 4 4
2022-01-13 3 3
2022-01-14 3 3
2022-01-15 3 NA
2022-01-16 3 NA
2022-01-17 4 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 3 3
2022-01-11 3 3
2022-01-12 3 3
2022-01-13 2 3
2022-01-14 2 2
2022-01-15 3 NA
2022-01-16 2 NA
2022-01-17 2 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 1 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 1
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 2 NA
2022-01-17 1 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Australian Capital Territory Wave 1 50.0% 27.6% 3.1% 2.80%
Australian Capital Territory Wave 2 NA NA NA 0.00%
Australian Capital Territory Wave 3 38.0% 24.5% 1.1% 0.55%
Australian Capital Territory Wave 4 15.7% 8.3% 0.9% 0.03%

5.2.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australian Capital Territory cases 1,045 2022-01-17 0.86 [0.81 - 0.91]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australian Capital Territory over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australian Capital Territory over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australian Capital Territory since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australian Capital Territory since 1 April 2020

5.3 New South Wales

5.3.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

New South Wales - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

New South Wales - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.3.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

New South Wales - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

New South Wales - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.3.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in New South Wales by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-26 190 180 Wave 1 Peak
2020-12-21 23 22 Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-08 1,457 1,409 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-08 45,043 32,747 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-10 20,202 32,031
2022-01-11 25,658 30,035
2022-01-12 24,636 27,446
2022-01-13 40,328 26,129
2022-01-14 24,445 25,764
2022-01-15 26,916 NA
2022-01-16 20,717 NA
2022-01-17 17,646 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for New South Wales on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

New South Wales - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 251 219 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-07 15 17 Wave 2 Peak
2020-08-08 15 17 Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-20 1,207 1,236 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 2,030 2,043
2022-01-11 2,186 2,156
2022-01-12 2,242 2,267
2022-01-13 2,383 2,371
2022-01-14 2,527 2,477 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 2,576 NA
2022-01-16 2,650 NA
2022-01-17 2,776 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

New South Wales - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 41 41 Wave 1 Peak
2021-09-21 242 236 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 159 159
2022-01-11 170 167
2022-01-12 175 174
2022-01-13 182 179
2022-01-14 185 186 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 193 NA
2022-01-16 191 NA
2022-01-17 203 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

New South Wales - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 23 23 Wave 1 Peak
2021-09-20 123 119 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 47 46
2022-01-11 51 50
2022-01-12 54 53
2022-01-13 60 56
2022-01-14 60 58 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 58 NA
2022-01-16 61 NA
2022-01-17 61 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

New South Wales - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-09-28 7 11 Wave 3 Peak
2021-09-30 6 11 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 18 15
2022-01-11 11 18
2022-01-12 21 19
2022-01-13 21 20 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-14 29 20
2022-01-15 20 NA
2022-01-16 20 NA
2022-01-17 17 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

New South Wales - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

New South Wales - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

New South Wales - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
New South Wales Wave 1 29.7% 21.0% 1.4% 1.49%
New South Wales Wave 2 28.4% 14.7% 0.3% 0.26%
New South Wales Wave 3 19.1% 8.7% 0.7% 0.75%
New South Wales Wave 4 8.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.04%

5.3.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
New South Wales cases 25,764 2022-01-17 0.84 [0.81 - 0.87]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for New South Wales over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for New South Wales over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for New South Wales since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for New South Wales since 1 April 2020

5.4 Northern Territory

5.4.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Northern Territory - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Northern Territory - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.4.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Northern Territory - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Northern Territory - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.4.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Northern Territory by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 387 371
2022-01-11 389 386
2022-01-12 318 407 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-13 494 404
2022-01-14 384 368
2022-01-15 576 NA
2022-01-16 278 NA
2022-01-17 135 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Northern Territory on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Northern Territory - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 24 24 Wave 1 Peak
2021-04-28 52 50 Wave 2 Peak
2021-11-30 58 57 Wave 3 Peak
2021-12-03 61 61 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2021-12-16 62 61 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-10 26 25
2022-01-11 32 27
2022-01-12 22 30
2022-01-13 33 33
2022-01-14 37 35
2022-01-15 36 NA
2022-01-16 44 NA
2022-01-17 39 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Northern Territory - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 2 2
2022-01-11 2 2
2022-01-12 2 2
2022-01-13 2 2
2022-01-14 2 2
2022-01-15 2 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 1 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Northern Territory - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 1 1
2022-01-11 1 1
2022-01-12 1 1
2022-01-13 1 1
2022-01-14 1 1
2022-01-15 1 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Northern Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 1 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Northern Territory - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Northern Territory - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Northern Territory - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Northern Territory Wave 1 0.5% 0.4% NA NA
Northern Territory Wave 2 0.0% 0.0% NA NA
Northern Territory Wave 3 0.0% 0.0% NA NA
Northern Territory Wave 4 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.04%

5.4.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Northern Territory cases 368 2022-01-17 1.15 [1.05 - 1.26]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Northern Territory over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Northern Territory over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Northern Territory since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Northern Territory since 1 April 2020

5.5 Queensland

5.5.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Queensland - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Queensland - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.5.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Queensland - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Queensland - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.5.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Queensland by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-25 46 58 Wave 1 Peak
2021-08-04 19 16 Wave 3 Peak
2021-08-05 27 16 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 5,852 12,584
2022-01-11 16,367 12,940
2022-01-12 18,076 13,298
2022-01-13 12,085 13,177
2022-01-14 13,435 13,847 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 13,616 NA
2022-01-16 12,805 NA
2022-01-17 10,547 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Queensland on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Queensland - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 47 51 Wave 1 Peak
2021-04-02 82 76 Wave 2 Peak
2021-08-05 65 67 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 440 458
2022-01-11 529 495
2022-01-12 555 536
2022-01-13 586 574
2022-01-14 589 611 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 649 NA
2022-01-16 670 NA
2022-01-17 702 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Queensland - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 11 12 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-09 12 12 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 21 22
2022-01-11 27 26
2022-01-12 30 30
2022-01-13 26 34
2022-01-14 41 38 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 46 NA
2022-01-16 49 NA
2022-01-17 47 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Queensland - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-10 12 11 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-11 12 11 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 7 6
2022-01-11 6 8
2022-01-12 8 9
2022-01-13 10 11
2022-01-14 15 12 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 14 NA
2022-01-16 16 NA
2022-01-17 15 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Queensland - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 1
2022-01-11 1 2
2022-01-12 0 2
2022-01-13 6 3
2022-01-14 3 4
2022-01-15 6 NA
2022-01-16 3 NA
2022-01-17 7 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Queensland - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Queensland - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Queensland - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Queensland Wave 1 33.4% 30.0% 0.6% 0.57%
Queensland Wave 2 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.18%
Queensland Wave 3 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Queensland Wave 4 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.02%

5.5.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Queensland cases 13,847 2022-01-17 1.23 [1.16 - 1.32]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Queensland over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Queensland over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Queensland since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Queensland since 1 April 2020

5.6 South Australia

5.6.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

South Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

South Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.6.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

South Australia - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

South Australia - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.6.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in South Australia by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-25 27 31 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 4,019 3,799
2022-01-11 2,877 4,073 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-12 3,640 4,069
2022-01-13 3,578 3,761
2022-01-14 5,619 3,595
2022-01-15 4,239 NA
2022-01-16 2,352 NA
2022-01-17 2,860 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for South Australia on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

South Australia - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 19 19 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 188 185
2022-01-11 211 200
2022-01-12 190 210
2022-01-13 225 217
2022-01-14 246 222 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 236 NA
2022-01-16 220 NA
2022-01-17 227 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

South Australia - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 21 21
2022-01-11 22 21
2022-01-12 27 23
2022-01-13 26 24
2022-01-14 20 25 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 26 NA
2022-01-16 26 NA
2022-01-17 26 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

South Australia - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 4 4
2022-01-11 4 5
2022-01-12 6 5
2022-01-13 7 6
2022-01-14 8 6
2022-01-15 7 NA
2022-01-16 6 NA
2022-01-17 5 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

South Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 2 3
2022-01-11 1 4
2022-01-12 7 3
2022-01-13 4 4
2022-01-14 6 3
2022-01-15 4 NA
2022-01-16 2 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

South Australia - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

South Australia - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

South Australia - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
South Australia Wave 1 37.7% 0.0% 1.1% 0.91%
South Australia Wave 2 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
South Australia Wave 3 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
South Australia Wave 4 10.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.05%

5.6.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
South Australia cases 3,595 2022-01-17 0.96 [0.94 - 0.99]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for South Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for South Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for South Australia since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for South Australia since 1 April 2020

5.7 Tasmania

5.7.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Tasmania - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Tasmania - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.7.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Tasmania - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Tasmania - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.7.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Tasmania by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-06 751 841 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-10 385 686
2022-01-11 352 527
2022-01-12 732 422
2022-01-13 245 382
2022-01-14 370 371
2022-01-15 302 NA
2022-01-16 289 NA
2022-01-17 310 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Tasmania on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Tasmania - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-20 19 17 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-21 17 17 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 17 16
2022-01-11 18 18
2022-01-12 22 20
2022-01-13 23 21
2022-01-14 24 22 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 22 NA
2022-01-16 22 NA
2022-01-17 21 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Tasmania - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 1 NA
2022-01-16 1 NA
2022-01-17 1 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Tasmania - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Tasmania - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Tasmania - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Tasmania - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Tasmania - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Tasmania Wave 1 8.0% 1.2% 2.2% 5.70%
Tasmania Wave 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Tasmania Wave 3 NA NA NA 0.00%
Tasmania Wave 4 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%

5.7.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Tasmania cases 371 2022-01-17 0.55 [0.49 - 0.63]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Tasmania over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Tasmania over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Tasmania since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Tasmania since 1 April 2020

5.8 Victoria

5.8.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Victoria - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Victoria - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.8.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Victoria - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Victoria - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.8.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Victoria by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-30 52 74 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-02 626 533 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-17 1,769 1,932 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 18,653 22,132
2022-01-11 21,107 22,144 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-12 23,385 20,616
2022-01-13 22,971 20,145
2022-01-14 21,544 19,203
2022-01-15 13,960 NA
2022-01-16 19,397 NA
2022-01-17 12,059 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Victoria on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Victoria - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 45 46 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-16 662 663 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-19 784 794 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 818 815
2022-01-11 861 862
2022-01-12 946 909
2022-01-13 953 960
2022-01-14 976 1,019 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 1,054 NA
2022-01-16 1,114 NA
2022-01-17 1,229 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Victoria - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-13 14 15 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-14 15 15 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-09 43 44 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-17 151 153 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 118 104
2022-01-11 117 112
2022-01-12 112 113
2022-01-13 111 115
2022-01-14 112 117 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 115 NA
2022-01-16 122 NA
2022-01-17 129 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Victoria - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-08-17 32 29 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-19 100 99 Wave 3 Peak
2021-12-17 43 44 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-10 28 27
2022-01-11 27 27
2022-01-12 31 28
2022-01-13 29 30
2022-01-14 30 31
2022-01-15 30 NA
2022-01-16 35 NA
2022-01-17 38 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Victoria - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-09-01 5 22 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-25 7 12 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-10 2 11
2022-01-11 13 13
2022-01-12 21 15
2022-01-13 25 16
2022-01-14 18 17 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-15 23 NA
2022-01-16 13 NA
2022-01-17 6 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Victoria - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Victoria - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Victoria - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Victoria Wave 1 37.7% 19.5% 1.4% 1.15%
Victoria Wave 2 8.8% 4.5% 2.9% 4.24%
Victoria Wave 3 19.5% 12.2% 1.3% 0.51%
Victoria Wave 4 14.7% 6.1% 1.5% 0.10%

5.8.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Victoria cases 19,203 2022-01-17 0.93 [0.90 - 0.98]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Victoria over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Victoria over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Victoria since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Victoria since 1 April 2020

5.9 Western Australia

5.9.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Western Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Western Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.9.2 Percentage testing positive

Below the 7-day moving average of percentage testing positive is plotted since 1 April 2020.

Western Australia - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Percentage Testing Positive (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Western Australia - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Percentage Testing Positive for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.9.3 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Western Australia by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-27 24 31 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 8 9
2022-01-11 15 9
2022-01-12 6 9
2022-01-13 16 9
2022-01-14 9 10
2022-01-15 8 NA
2022-01-16 4 NA
2022-01-17 12 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Western Australia on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Western Australia - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.4 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-06 58 47 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Western Australia - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.5 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-07 15 15 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Western Australia - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.6 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Western Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.7 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-10 0 0
2022-01-11 0 0
2022-01-12 0 0
2022-01-13 0 0
2022-01-14 0 0
2022-01-15 0 NA
2022-01-16 0 NA
2022-01-17 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Western Australia - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.8 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Western Australia - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Western Australia - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.9 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

  • Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
  • Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
  • Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
  • Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

  • ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
  • Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
  • Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
  • Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Western Australia Wave 1 29.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.54%
Western Australia Wave 2 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Western Australia Wave 3 47.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Western Australia Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.00%

5.9.10 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Western Australia cases 10 2022-01-17 1.16 [0.90 - 1.44]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Western Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Western Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Western Australia since 1 April 2020

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Western Australia since 1 April 2020

5.10 Detailed Results

Detailed output for all states are saved to a comma-separated value file. The file can be found here.

6 Discussion

Limitation of this method to estimated reproduction number are noted in [1]:

  • It’s sensitive to changes in transmissibility, changes in contact patterns, depletion of the susceptible population and control measures.
  • It relies on an assumed generation interval assumptions.
  • The size of the time window can affect the volatility of results.
  • Results are time lagged with regards to true infection.
  • It’s sensitive to changes in case detection.
  • The generation interval may change over time.
  • Crude ratios calculated do not account for timing accurately.
  • It’s unclear what dates the data relate to.
  • It’s unclear to what degree the data is subject to reporting delays.

Further to the above the estimates are made under assumption that the cases are detected at a similar ratio to the underlying infections over time. Should this change rapidly over an interval of a few weeks the above estimates of the effective reproduction numbers would be biased. For example a rapid expansion of case detection could result in an overestimating recent effective reproduction numbers.

A relatively simple allowance is made for public holidays so as to avoid volatile figures due to public holidays. This allowance could be refined further but should result in a more consistent estimate of the reproduction number over time. Care should still be taken when reviewing results during periods where testing could be impacted.

Estimates for the reproduction number here are plotted in time period in which the case was recorded. Ideally we would wish to capture the date the infection occurred. These figures have not been shifted back, even approximately, to the date of infection.

Many if the district municipalities may have limited cases at any particular point in time and hence reproduction numbers estimated for these may be wide. Care should be taken where confidence intervals are wide.

Despite these limitation it is believed that the ease of calculation of this method and the ability to use multiple sources makes it useful as a monitoring tool.

7 Author

This report was prepared by Louis Rossouw. Please get in contact with Louis Rossouw if you have comments or wish to receive this regularly.

Louis Rossouw
Segment Head of Research & Analytics
Gen Re | Life/Health Canada, Australia, Australia, NZ, UK & Ireland
Email: LRossouw@GenRe.com Mobile: +27 71 355 2550

The views in this document represents that of the author and may not represent those of Gen Re. Also note that given the significant uncertainty involved with the parameters, data and methodology care should be taken with these numbers and any use of these numbers.

References

[1]
A. Cori, N. M. Ferguson, C. Fraser, and S. Cauchemez, “A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics,” American Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 178, no. 9, pp. 1505–1512, Sep. 2013, doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt133.
[2]
A. Cori, EpiEstim: A package to estimate time varying reproduction numbers from epidemic curves. 2013.
[3]
J. O’Brien et al., “Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia,” COVID-19-data-aus. https://www.covid19data.com.au, 2021.