# 1 Introduction

This paper contains estimates for the effective reproduction number $$R_{t,m}$$ over time $$t$$ in various states $$m$$ of Australia. This is done using the methodology as described in [1]. These have been implemented in R using EpiEstim package [2] which is what is used here. The methodology and assumptions are described in more detail here.

This paper and it’s results should be updated roughly daily and is available online.

As this paper is updated over time this section will summarise significant changes. The code producing this paper is tracked using Git. The Git commit hash for this project at the time of generating this paper was c399b48e8b855dbc2badc6615a151166baa531ac.

• Initial code on 29 December 2021
• Removed percentage testing positive from report as use of antigen test distorts these graphs on 22 April 2022.

# 3 Data

## 3.1 Data Source

Data data is extracted from covid19data.com.au [3]. This contains the daily cases, tests and deaths for Australia nationally and by state. It also contains numbers currently in hospital, ICU and on ventilators Note this data does not contain daily admissions.

This report contains data up to 2022-12-23.

## 3.2 Data Fixes

The following fixes are applied to case, deaths and test data:

1. Anywhere a cumulative figures that are lower than the day before are removed. These are probably usually due to corrections on previous days data.
2. Data capturing issues and the removal of figures under the point in above results in gaps in the daily data. These are filled by linear interpolation of cumulative figures between the available dates.
3. Daily counts are calculated using differences of cumulative figures.
4. Hospitalisation, ICU and ventilator figures are not adjusted.

# 4 Methodology

The methodology is described in detail here. Here we estimate the effective reproduction number on cases.

# 5 Results

## 5.1 National

### 5.1.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.1.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-26 379 376 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-02 641 551 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-12 1,809 2,310 Wave 3 Peak
2022-03-19 45,367 80,205 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 111,611 15,944
2022-12-17 0 15,944
2022-12-18 0 15,944
2022-12-19 0 15,944
2022-12-20 0 15,112
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 105,787 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average daily case is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.1.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 460 415 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-16 680 683 Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-25 1,529 1,524 Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-24 5,362 5,378 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.1.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-05 96 90 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-06 96 90 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-08 53 53 Wave 2 Peak
2020-08-09 51 53 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-15 311 304 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-19 425 415 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-20 418 415 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.1.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-13 46 40 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-14 44 40 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-08 35 34 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-15 174 176 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-23 138 136 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.1.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-05 5 4 Wave 1 Peak
2020-09-01 5 22 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-20 19 15 Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-28 125 97 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 233 33
2022-12-17 0 33
2022-12-18 0 33
2022-12-19 0 33
2022-12-20 0 37
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 256 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Below a 7-day moving average daily deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.1.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.1.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Australia Wave 1 28.5% 15.8% 1.2% 1.40%
Australia Wave 2 8.3% 4.2% 2.2% 3.57%
Australia Wave 3 18.6% 9.5% 0.9% 0.61%
Australia Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.14%

### 5.1.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australia cases 15,112 2022-12-23 0.95 [0.94 - 0.96]
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by State
State Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australian Capital Territory cases 455 2022-12-23 1.08 [1.04 - 1.12]
New South Wales cases 5,476 2022-12-23 0.94 [0.93 - 0.95]
Northern Territory cases 91 2022-12-23 0.77 [0.71 - 0.83]
Queensland cases 1,959 2022-12-23 0.92 [0.90 - 0.95]
South Australia cases 1,577 2022-12-23 0.96 [0.94 - 0.98]
Tasmania cases 577 2022-12-23 0.99 [0.96 - 1.02]
Victoria cases 3,441 2022-12-23 0.97 [0.95 - 0.98]
Western Australia cases 1,537 2022-12-23 0.92 [0.90 - 0.94]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.2 Australian Capital Territory

### 5.2.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.2.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-10-04 28 39 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-30 381 1,644 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 3,020 431
2022-12-17 0 431
2022-12-18 0 431
2022-12-19 0 431
2022-12-20 0 455
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 3,184 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Australian Capital Territory on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.2.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-10-22 20 20 Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-19 170 163 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.2.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-10-22 11 10 Wave 3 Peak
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.2.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.2.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 1 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 0
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 2 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.2.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.2.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Australian Capital Territory Wave 1 50.0% 27.6% 3.1% 2.80%
Australian Capital Territory Wave 2 NA NA NA 0.00%
Australian Capital Territory Wave 3 38.0% 24.5% 1.1% 0.55%
Australian Capital Territory Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.06%

### 5.2.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australian Capital Territory cases 455 2022-12-23 1.08 [1.04 - 1.12]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.3 New South Wales

### 5.3.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.3.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in New South Wales by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-26 190 180 Wave 1 Peak
2020-12-21 23 22 Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-08 1,457 1,409 Wave 3 Peak
2022-05-02 7,619 37,150 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 40,680 5,811
2022-12-17 0 5,811
2022-12-18 0 5,811
2022-12-19 0 5,811
2022-12-20 0 5,476
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 38,331 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for New South Wales on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.3.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 251 219 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-07 15 17 Wave 2 Peak
2020-08-08 15 17 Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-20 1,207 1,236 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-22 2,762 2,803 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.3.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 41 41 Wave 1 Peak
2021-09-21 242 236 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-19 217 206 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.3.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 23 23 Wave 1 Peak
2021-09-20 123 119 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-27 72 74 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.3.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2021-09-28 7 11 Wave 3 Peak
2021-09-30 6 11 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-31 27 37 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 74 11
2022-12-17 0 11
2022-12-18 0 11
2022-12-19 0 11
2022-12-20 0 11
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 78 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.3.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.3.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
New South Wales Wave 1 29.7% 21.0% 1.4% 1.49%
New South Wales Wave 2 28.4% 14.7% 0.3% 0.26%
New South Wales Wave 3 19.1% 8.7% 0.7% 0.75%
New South Wales Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.13%

### 5.3.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
New South Wales cases 5,476 2022-12-23 0.94 [0.93 - 0.95]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.4 Northern Territory

### 5.4.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.4.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Northern Territory by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-31 717 1,794 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 837 120
2022-12-17 0 120
2022-12-18 0 120
2022-12-19 0 120
2022-12-20 0 91
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 638 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Northern Territory on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.4.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 24 24 Wave 1 Peak
2021-04-28 52 50 Wave 2 Peak
2021-11-30 58 57 Wave 3 Peak
2022-02-11 164 169 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.4.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.4.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.4.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 1 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 0
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 0 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.4.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.4.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Northern Territory Wave 1 0.5% 0.4% NA NA
Northern Territory Wave 2 0.0% 0.0% NA NA
Northern Territory Wave 3 0.0% 0.0% NA NA
Northern Territory Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.08%

### 5.4.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Northern Territory cases 91 2022-12-23 0.77 [0.71 - 0.83]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.5 Queensland

### 5.5.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.5.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Queensland by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-25 46 58 Wave 1 Peak
2021-08-04 19 16 Wave 3 Peak
2021-08-05 27 16 Wave 3 Peak
2022-03-19 6,093 38,377 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 15,320 2,189
2022-12-17 0 2,189
2022-12-18 0 2,189
2022-12-19 0 2,189
2022-12-20 0 1,959
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 13,713 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Queensland on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.5.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 47 51 Wave 1 Peak
2021-04-02 82 76 Wave 2 Peak
2021-08-05 65 67 Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-23 1,061 1,053 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.5.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 11 12 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-09 12 12 Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-22 52 51 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.5.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-10 12 11 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-11 12 11 Wave 1 Peak
2022-02-04 23 23 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.5.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-08-07 0 17 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 33 5
2022-12-17 0 5
2022-12-18 0 5
2022-12-19 0 5
2022-12-20 0 2
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 12 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.5.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.5.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Queensland Wave 1 33.4% 30.0% 0.6% 0.57%
Queensland Wave 2 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.18%
Queensland Wave 3 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Queensland Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.14%

### 5.5.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Queensland cases 1,959 2022-12-23 0.92 [0.90 - 0.95]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.6 South Australia

### 5.6.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.6.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in South Australia by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-25 27 31 Wave 1 Peak
2022-04-08 6,370 6,029 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 11,626 1,661
2022-12-17 0 1,661
2022-12-18 0 1,661
2022-12-19 0 1,661
2022-12-20 0 1,577
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 11,039 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for South Australia on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.6.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-04 19 19 Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-24 374 367 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.6.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-01-23 28 31 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.6.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.6.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-09-06 5 12 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 21 3
2022-12-17 0 3
2022-12-18 0 3
2022-12-19 0 3
2022-12-20 0 3
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 24 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.6.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.6.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
South Australia Wave 1 37.7% 0.0% 1.1% 0.91%
South Australia Wave 2 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
South Australia Wave 3 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
South Australia Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.14%

### 5.6.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
South Australia cases 1,577 2022-12-23 0.96 [0.94 - 0.98]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.7 Tasmania

### 5.7.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.7.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Tasmania by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-02-18 628 3,340 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 4,084 583
2022-12-17 0 583
2022-12-18 0 583
2022-12-19 0 583
2022-12-20 0 577
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 4,040 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Tasmania on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.7.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-20 19 17 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-21 17 17 Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-22 172 179 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.7.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.7.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.7.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 7 1
2022-12-17 0 1
2022-12-18 0 1
2022-12-19 0 1
2022-12-20 0 1
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 6 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.7.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.7.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Tasmania Wave 1 8.0% 1.2% 2.2% 5.70%
Tasmania Wave 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Tasmania Wave 3 NA NA NA 0.00%
Tasmania Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.08%

### 5.7.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Tasmania cases 577 2022-12-23 0.99 [0.96 - 1.02]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.8 Victoria

### 5.8.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.8.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Victoria by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-30 52 74 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-02 626 533 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-17 1,769 1,932 Wave 3 Peak
2022-02-02 14,328 44,815 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 24,477 3,497
2022-12-17 0 3,497
2022-12-18 0 3,497
2022-12-19 0 3,497
2022-12-20 0 3,441
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 24,085 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Victoria on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.8.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-08 45 46 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-16 662 663 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-19 784 794 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-18 1,152 1,146 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.8.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-13 14 15 Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-14 15 15 Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-09 43 44 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-17 151 153 Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-19 125 124 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.8.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-08-17 32 29 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-19 100 99 Wave 3 Peak
2021-12-17 43 44 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.8.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-09-01 5 22 Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-25 7 12 Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-29 107 43 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 84 12
2022-12-17 0 12
2022-12-18 0 12
2022-12-19 0 12
2022-12-20 0 14
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 100 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.8.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.8.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Victoria Wave 1 37.7% 19.5% 1.4% 1.15%
Victoria Wave 2 8.8% 4.5% 2.9% 4.24%
Victoria Wave 3 19.5% 12.2% 1.3% 0.51%
Victoria Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.19%

### 5.8.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Victoria cases 3,441 2022-12-23 0.97 [0.95 - 0.98]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.9 Western Australia

### 5.9.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

### 5.9.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Western Australia by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)
Date Cases 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-03-27 24 31 Wave 1 Peak
2022-05-18 16,226 14,686 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 11,567 1,652
2022-12-17 0 1,652
2022-12-18 0 1,652
2022-12-19 0 1,652
2022-12-20 0 1,537
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 10,757 NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Western Australia on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.9.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In Hospital 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-06 58 47 Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-23 430 446 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.9.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date In ICU 7-day Moving Average Comment
2020-04-07 15 15 Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-22 24 22 Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.9.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date On Ventilators 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 0 0
2022-12-17 0 0
2022-12-18 0 0
2022-12-19 0 0
2022-12-20 0 NA
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 NA NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.9.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)
Date Deaths 7-day Moving Average Comment
2022-12-16 12 2
2022-12-17 0 2
2022-12-18 0 2
2022-12-19 0 2
2022-12-20 0 5
2022-12-21 0 NA
2022-12-22 0 NA
2022-12-23 34 NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.9.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

### 5.9.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.
Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave
Wave ICU Ratio Ventilator Ratio Death Ratio Case Fatality Ratio
Western Australia Wave 1 29.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.54%
Western Australia Wave 2 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Western Australia Wave 3 47.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Western Australia Wave 4 NA NA NA 0.07%

### 5.9.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia
Type Count (Per Day) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Western Australia cases 1,537 2022-12-23 0.92 [0.90 - 0.94]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

## 5.10 Detailed Results

Detailed output for all states are saved to a comma-separated value file. The file can be found here.

# 6 Discussion

Limitation of this method to estimated reproduction number are noted in [1]:

• It’s sensitive to changes in transmissibility, changes in contact patterns, depletion of the susceptible population and control measures.
• It relies on an assumed generation interval assumptions.
• The size of the time window can affect the volatility of results.
• Results are time lagged with regards to true infection.
• It’s sensitive to changes in case detection.
• The generation interval may change over time.
• Crude ratios calculated do not account for timing accurately.
• It’s unclear what dates the data relate to.
• It’s unclear to what degree the data is subject to reporting delays.

Further to the above the estimates are made under assumption that the cases are detected at a similar ratio to the underlying infections over time. Should this change rapidly over an interval of a few weeks the above estimates of the effective reproduction numbers would be biased. For example a rapid expansion of case detection could result in an overestimating recent effective reproduction numbers.

A relatively simple allowance is made for public holidays so as to avoid volatile figures due to public holidays. This allowance could be refined further but should result in a more consistent estimate of the reproduction number over time. Care should still be taken when reviewing results during periods where testing could be impacted.

Estimates for the reproduction number here are plotted in time period in which the case was recorded. Ideally we would wish to capture the date the infection occurred. These figures have not been shifted back, even approximately, to the date of infection.

Many if the district municipalities may have limited cases at any particular point in time and hence reproduction numbers estimated for these may be wide. Care should be taken where confidence intervals are wide.

Despite these limitation it is believed that the ease of calculation of this method and the ability to use multiple sources makes it useful as a monitoring tool.

# 7 Author

This report was prepared by Louis Rossouw. Please get in contact with Louis Rossouw if you have comments or wish to receive this regularly.

Louis Rossouw
Segment Head of Research & Analytics
Gen Re | Life/Health Canada, Australia, Australia, NZ, UK & Ireland
Email: LRossouw@GenRe.com Mobile: +27 71 355 2550

The views in this document represents that of the author and may not represent those of Gen Re. Also note that given the significant uncertainty involved with the parameters, data and methodology care should be taken with these numbers and any use of these numbers.

# References

[1]
A. Cori, N. M. Ferguson, C. Fraser, and S. Cauchemez, “A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics,” American Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 178, no. 9, pp. 1505–1512, Sep. 2013, doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt133.
[2]
A. Cori, EpiEstim: A package to estimate time varying reproduction numbers from epidemic curves. 2013.
[3]
J. O’Brien et al., “Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia,” COVID-19-data-aus. https://www.covid19data.com.au, 2021.