Estimating the Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Australia

1 Introduction

This paper contains estimates for the effective reproduction number \(R_{t,m}\) over time \(t\) in various states \(m\) of Australia. This is done using the methodology as described in [1]. These have been implemented in R using EpiEstim package [2] which is what is used here. The methodology and assumptions are described in more detail here.

This paper and it’s results should be updated roughly daily and is available online.

2 Updates

As this paper is updated over time this section will summarise significant changes. The code producing this paper is tracked using Git. The Git commit hash for this project at the time of generating this paper was 6cab0e089bd06c9688728ab585072be9bce67169.

The following major updates have been made:

• Initial code on 29 December 2021
• Removed percentage testing positive from report as use of antigen test distorts these graphs on 22 April 2022.

3 Data

3.1 Data Source

Data data is extracted from covid19data.com.au [3]. This contains the daily cases, tests and deaths for Australia nationally and by state. It also contains numbers currently in hospital, ICU and on ventilators Note this data does not contain daily admissions.

This report contains data up to 2023-02-10.

3.2 Data Fixes

The following fixes are applied to case, deaths and test data:

1. Anywhere a cumulative figures that are lower than the day before are removed. These are probably usually due to corrections on previous days data.
2. Data capturing issues and the removal of figures under the point in above results in gaps in the daily data. These are filled by linear interpolation of cumulative figures between the available dates.
3. Daily counts are calculated using differences of cumulative figures.
4. Hospitalisation, ICU and ventilator figures are not adjusted.

4 Methodology

The methodology is described in detail here. Here we estimate the effective reproduction number on cases.

5 Results

5.1 National

5.1.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.1.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-03-26	379	376	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-02	641	551	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-12	1,809	2,310	Wave 3 Peak
2022-03-19	45,367	80,205	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	17,536	2,505
2023-02-04	0	2,505
2023-02-05	0	2,505
2023-02-06	0	2,505
2023-02-07	0	2,484
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	17,387	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average daily case is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Australian Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Cases by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Cases for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-04	460	415	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-16	680	683	Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-25	1,529	1,524	Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-24	5,362	5,378	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Hospital Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-05	96	90	Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-06	96	90	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-08	53	53	Wave 2 Peak
2020-08-09	51	53	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-15	311	304	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-19	425	415	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2022-01-20	418	415	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily ICU Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-13	46	40	Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-14	44	40	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-08	35	34	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-15	174	176	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-23	138	136	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily admissions are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Ventilator Counts by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-05	5	4	Wave 1 Peak
2020-09-01	5	22	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-20	19	15	Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-28	125	97	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	226	32
2023-02-04	0	32
2023-02-05	0	32
2023-02-06	0	32
2023-02-07	0	35
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	248	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Below a 7-day moving average daily deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Daily Deaths by State (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Daily Deaths for Last 30-days by State (7-day moving average)

5.1.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Australian Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.1.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Australia	Wave 1	28.5%	15.8%	1.2%	1.40%
Australia	Wave 2	8.3%	4.2%	2.2%	3.57%
Australia	Wave 3	18.6%	9.5%	0.9%	0.61%
Australia	Wave 4	4.7%	1.3%	1.5%	0.14%

5.1.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australia	cases	2,484	2023-02-10	0.97 [0.94 - 0.99]

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by State

State	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australian Capital Territory	cases	52	2023-02-10	2.06 [1.55 - 2.69]
New South Wales	cases	914	2023-02-10	0.95 [0.92 - 0.98]
Northern Territory	cases	23	2023-02-10	1.02 [0.87 - 1.19]
Queensland	cases	503	2023-02-10	0.84 [0.81 - 0.87]
South Australia	cases	223	2023-02-10	1.14 [1.08 - 1.20]
Tasmania	cases	51	2023-02-10	1.06 [0.94 - 1.18]
Victoria	cases	410	2023-02-10	0.96 [0.92 - 0.99]
Western Australia	cases	298	2023-02-10	0.94 [0.89 - 0.98]

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number based on Cases by State

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australia since 1 April 2020

5.2 Australian Capital Territory

5.2.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.2.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2021-10-04	28	39	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-30	381	1,644	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	23
2023-02-04	53	30
2023-02-05	53	38
2023-02-06	53	46
2023-02-07	53	52
2023-02-08	53	NA
2023-02-09	54	NA
2023-02-10	45	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Australian Capital Territory on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2021-10-22	20	20	Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-19	170	163	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2021-10-22	11	10	Wave 3 Peak
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Australian Capital Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	5	1
2023-02-04	0	1
2023-02-05	0	1
2023-02-06	0	1
2023-02-07	0	0
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	0	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Australian Capital Territory - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Australian Capital Territory	Wave 1	50.0%	27.6%	3.1%	2.80%
Australian Capital Territory	Wave 2	NA	NA	NA	0.00%
Australian Capital Territory	Wave 3	38.0%	24.5%	1.1%	0.55%
Australian Capital Territory	Wave 4	3.1%	1.1%	0.5%	0.06%

5.2.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Australian Capital Territory	cases	52	2023-02-10	2.06 [1.55 - 2.69]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australian Capital Territory over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Australian Capital Territory since 1 April 2020

5.3 New South Wales

5.3.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

New South Wales - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

New South Wales - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.3.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in New South Wales by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-03-26	190	180	Wave 1 Peak
2020-12-21	23	22	Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-08	1,457	1,409	Wave 3 Peak
2022-05-02	7,619	37,150	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	6,563	938
2023-02-04	0	938
2023-02-05	0	938
2023-02-06	0	938
2023-02-07	0	914
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	6,401	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for New South Wales on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

New South Wales - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-04	251	219	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-07	15	17	Wave 2 Peak
2020-08-08	15	17	Wave 2 Peak
2021-09-20	1,207	1,236	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-22	2,762	2,803	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

New South Wales - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-04	41	41	Wave 1 Peak
2021-09-21	242	236	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-19	217	206	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

New South Wales - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-08	23	23	Wave 1 Peak
2021-09-20	123	119	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-27	72	74	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

New South Wales - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in New South Wales by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2021-09-28	7	11	Wave 3 Peak
2021-09-30	6	11	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-31	27	37	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	88	13
2023-02-04	0	13
2023-02-05	0	13
2023-02-06	0	13
2023-02-07	0	9
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	62	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

New South Wales - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

New South Wales - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

New South Wales - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
New South Wales	Wave 1	29.7%	21.0%	1.4%	1.49%
New South Wales	Wave 2	28.4%	14.7%	0.3%	0.26%
New South Wales	Wave 3	19.1%	8.7%	0.7%	0.75%
New South Wales	Wave 4	4.0%	1.4%	0.9%	0.13%

5.3.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
New South Wales	cases	914	2023-02-10	0.95 [0.92 - 0.98]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for New South Wales over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for New South Wales since 1 April 2020

5.4 Northern Territory

5.4.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Northern Territory - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Northern Territory - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.4.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Northern Territory by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2022-01-31	717	1,794	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	151	22
2023-02-04	0	22
2023-02-05	0	22
2023-02-06	0	22
2023-02-07	0	23
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	159	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Northern Territory on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Northern Territory - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-08	24	24	Wave 1 Peak
2021-04-28	52	50	Wave 2 Peak
2021-11-30	58	57	Wave 3 Peak
2022-02-11	164	169	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Northern Territory - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Northern Territory - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Northern Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Northern Territory by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	0
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	0	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Northern Territory - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Northern Territory - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Northern Territory - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.4.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Northern Territory	Wave 1	0.5%	0.4%	NA	NA
Northern Territory	Wave 2	0.0%	0.0%	NA	NA
Northern Territory	Wave 3	0.0%	0.0%	NA	NA
Northern Territory	Wave 4	2.9%	0.1%	0.6%	0.08%

5.4.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Northern Territory	cases	23	2023-02-10	1.02 [0.87 - 1.19]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Northern Territory over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Northern Territory since 1 April 2020

5.5 Queensland

5.5.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Queensland - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Queensland - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.5.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Queensland by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-03-25	46	58	Wave 1 Peak
2021-08-04	19	16	Wave 3 Peak
2021-08-05	27	16	Wave 3 Peak
2022-03-19	6,093	38,377	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	4,094	585
2023-02-04	0	585
2023-02-05	0	585
2023-02-06	0	585
2023-02-07	0	503
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	3,520	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Queensland on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Queensland - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-04	47	51	Wave 1 Peak
2021-04-02	82	76	Wave 2 Peak
2021-08-05	65	67	Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-23	1,061	1,053	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Queensland - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-08	11	12	Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-09	12	12	Wave 1 Peak
2022-01-22	52	51	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Queensland - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-10	12	11	Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-11	12	11	Wave 1 Peak
2022-02-04	23	23	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Queensland - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Queensland by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2022-08-07	0	17	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	35	5
2023-02-04	0	5
2023-02-05	0	5
2023-02-06	0	5
2023-02-07	0	5
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	33	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Queensland - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Queensland - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Queensland - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.5.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Queensland	Wave 1	33.4%	30.0%	0.6%	0.57%
Queensland	Wave 2	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.18%
Queensland	Wave 3	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
Queensland	Wave 4	3.9%	0.8%	1.7%	0.14%

5.5.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Queensland	cases	503	2023-02-10	0.84 [0.81 - 0.87]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Queensland over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Queensland since 1 April 2020

5.6 South Australia

5.6.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

South Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

South Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.6.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in South Australia by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-03-25	27	31	Wave 1 Peak
2022-04-08	6,370	6,029	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	1,357	194
2023-02-04	0	194
2023-02-05	0	194
2023-02-06	0	194
2023-02-07	0	223
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	1,558	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for South Australia on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

South Australia - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-04	19	19	Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-24	374	367	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

South Australia - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2022-01-23	28	31	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

South Australia - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

South Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in South Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	14	2
2023-02-04	0	2
2023-02-05	0	2
2023-02-06	0	2
2023-02-07	0	13	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	94	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

South Australia - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

South Australia - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

South Australia - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.6.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
South Australia	Wave 1	37.7%	0.0%	1.1%	0.91%
South Australia	Wave 2	24.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
South Australia	Wave 3	14.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
South Australia	Wave 4	5.6%	0.8%	1.9%	0.14%

5.6.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
South Australia	cases	223	2023-02-10	1.14 [1.08 - 1.20]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for South Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for South Australia since 1 April 2020

5.7 Tasmania

5.7.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Tasmania - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Tasmania - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.7.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Tasmania by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2022-02-18	628	3,340	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	317	45
2023-02-04	0	45
2023-02-05	0	45
2023-02-06	0	45
2023-02-07	0	51
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	359	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Tasmania on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Tasmania - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-20	19	17	Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-21	17	17	Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-22	172	179	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Tasmania - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Tasmania - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Tasmania - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Tasmania by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	3	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	0
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	0	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Tasmania - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Tasmania - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Tasmania - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.7.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Tasmania	Wave 1	8.0%	1.2%	2.2%	5.70%
Tasmania	Wave 2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
Tasmania	Wave 3	NA	NA	NA	0.00%
Tasmania	Wave 4	4.5%	0.2%	1.6%	0.08%

5.7.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Tasmania	cases	51	2023-02-10	1.06 [0.94 - 1.18]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Tasmania over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Tasmania since 1 April 2020

5.8 Victoria

5.8.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Victoria - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Victoria - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.8.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Victoria by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-03-30	52	74	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-02	626	533	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-17	1,769	1,932	Wave 3 Peak
2022-02-02	14,328	44,815	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	2,985	426
2023-02-04	0	426
2023-02-05	0	426
2023-02-06	0	426
2023-02-07	0	410
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	2,873	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Victoria on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Victoria - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-08	45	46	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-16	662	663	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-19	784	794	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-18	1,152	1,146	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Victoria - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-13	14	15	Wave 1 Peak
2020-04-14	15	15	Wave 1 Peak
2020-08-09	43	44	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-17	151	153	Wave 3 Peak
2022-01-19	125	124	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Victoria - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-08-17	32	29	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-19	100	99	Wave 3 Peak
2021-12-17	43	44	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Victoria - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Victoria by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-09-01	5	22	Wave 2 Peak
2021-10-25	7	12	Wave 3 Peak
2022-07-29	107	43	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	70	10
2023-02-04	0	10
2023-02-05	0	10
2023-02-06	0	10
2023-02-07	0	7
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	52	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Victoria - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Victoria - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Victoria - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.8.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Victoria	Wave 1	37.7%	19.5%	1.4%	1.15%
Victoria	Wave 2	8.8%	4.5%	2.9%	4.24%
Victoria	Wave 3	19.5%	12.2%	1.3%	0.51%
Victoria	Wave 4	8.1%	2.5%	3.1%	0.19%

5.8.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Victoria	cases	410	2023-02-10	0.96 [0.92 - 0.99]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Victoria over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Victoria since 1 April 2020

5.9 Western Australia

5.9.1 Tests

Below raw numbers of test by date are plotted on a 7-day moving average from 1 April 2020.

Western Australia - Daily Tests (7-day moving average)

The above chart is repeated below covering the last 30 days only.

Western Australia - Daily Tests for Last 30 Days (7-day moving average)

5.9.2 Cases

Cases are tabulated by specimen received date below. Cases include estimates for late reporting in recent days as well as adjustments for any public holidays. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily cases in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of cases in Western Australia by Date (including peak cases in prior waves)

Date	Cases	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-03-27	24	31	Wave 1 Peak
2022-05-18	16,226	14,686	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	2,139	306
2023-02-04	0	306
2023-02-05	0	306
2023-02-06	0	306
2023-02-07	0	298
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	2,083	NA

Below a 7-day moving average daily case count is plotted for Western Australia on a log scale since start of the epidemic:

Western Australia - Daily Cases (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Cases for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.3 Hospitlisation

Counts of those in hospital are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Hospital Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In Hospital	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-06	58	47	Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-23	430	446	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily hospital counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Western Australia - Daily Hospital Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Hospital Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.4 ICU

Counts of those in ICU are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of ICU Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	In ICU	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2020-04-07	15	15	Wave 1 Peak
2022-07-22	24	22	Wave 4 Peak (to date)
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ICU counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Western Australia - Daily ICU Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily ICU Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.5 Ventilator

Counts of those on ventilators are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily admissions in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Ventilator Counts in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	On Ventilators	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	0	0
2023-02-04	0	0
2023-02-05	0	0
2023-02-06	0	0
2023-02-07	0	NA
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	NA	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily ventilator counts is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions are plotted by date.

Western Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Ventilator Counts for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.6 Deaths

Deaths are tabulated by report date below. A centred 7-day moving average is also shown. The peak daily deaths in previous waves (as measured by the moving average) is also shown.

Tabulation of Deaths in Western Australia by Date (including peaks in prior waves)

Date	Deaths	7-day Moving Average	Comment
2023-02-03	11	2
2023-02-04	0	2
2023-02-05	0	2
2023-02-06	0	2
2023-02-07	0	1
2023-02-08	0	NA
2023-02-09	0	NA
2023-02-10	7	NA

The above are based on the following dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below a 7-day moving average of daily deaths is plotted by on a log scale since start of the epidemic.

Western Australia - Daily Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.7 Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths Combined

Below a 7-day moving average daily case, hospital counts and deaths are plotted by state on a log scale since start of the epidemic. Note admissions and excess deaths are plotted by date, whereas cases are plotted by specimen received date.

Western Australia - Daily Cases, Hospital Counts and Deaths (7-day moving average)

Below the above chart is repeated for the last 30-days:

Western Australia - Daily Cases, Admissions and Deaths for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.9.8 Crude Ratios per Wave

Below crude rations are calculated between the waves. It’s based on the following starting dates:

• Wave 1 started on 2020-01-01.
• Wave 2 started on 2020-06-01.
• Wave 3 started on 2021-06-01.
• Wave 4 started on 2021-12-01.

Below crude ratios are tabulated and plotted. These ratios are:

• ICU ratio calculated as person days in ICU divided by person days in hospital.
• Ventilator ratio calculated as person days on ventilators divided by person days in hospital.
• Death ratio calculated as deaths divided by person days in hospital.
• Case fatality ratio is calcualted as deaths divided by cases.

Tabulation of Crude Ratios by Wave

	Wave	ICU Ratio	Ventilator Ratio	Death Ratio	Case Fatality Ratio
Western Australia	Wave 1	29.2%	0.0%	0.9%	1.54%
Western Australia	Wave 2	24.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
Western Australia	Wave 3	47.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00%
Western Australia	Wave 4	3.4%	0.1%	1.3%	0.07%

5.9.9 Reproduction Number

Below current (last weekly) effective reproduction number estimates are tabulated for Australia and by state.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number for Australia

	Type	Count (Per Day)	Week Ending	Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Western Australia	cases	298	2023-02-10	0.94 [0.89 - 0.98]

Below the effective reproduction number for Australia over the last 90 days are plotted together with a plot since start of the pandemic.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Western Australia over last 90 days

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number Based on Cases for Western Australia since 1 April 2020

5.10 Detailed Results

Detailed output for all states are saved to a comma-separated value file. The file can be found here.

6 Discussion

Limitation of this method to estimated reproduction number are noted in [1]:

• It’s sensitive to changes in transmissibility, changes in contact patterns, depletion of the susceptible population and control measures.
• It relies on an assumed generation interval assumptions.
• The size of the time window can affect the volatility of results.
• Results are time lagged with regards to true infection.
• It’s sensitive to changes in case detection.
• The generation interval may change over time.
• Crude ratios calculated do not account for timing accurately.
• It’s unclear what dates the data relate to.
• It’s unclear to what degree the data is subject to reporting delays.

Further to the above the estimates are made under assumption that the cases are detected at a similar ratio to the underlying infections over time. Should this change rapidly over an interval of a few weeks the above estimates of the effective reproduction numbers would be biased. For example a rapid expansion of case detection could result in an overestimating recent effective reproduction numbers.

A relatively simple allowance is made for public holidays so as to avoid volatile figures due to public holidays. This allowance could be refined further but should result in a more consistent estimate of the reproduction number over time. Care should still be taken when reviewing results during periods where testing could be impacted.

Estimates for the reproduction number here are plotted in time period in which the case was recorded. Ideally we would wish to capture the date the infection occurred. These figures have not been shifted back, even approximately, to the date of infection.

Many if the district municipalities may have limited cases at any particular point in time and hence reproduction numbers estimated for these may be wide. Care should be taken where confidence intervals are wide.

Despite these limitation it is believed that the ease of calculation of this method and the ability to use multiple sources makes it useful as a monitoring tool.

7 Author

This report was prepared by Louis Rossouw. Please get in contact with Louis Rossouw if you have comments or wish to receive this regularly.

Louis Rossouw
Segment Head of Research & Analytics
Gen Re | Life/Health Canada, Australia, Australia, NZ, UK & Ireland
Email: LRossouw@GenRe.com Mobile: +27 71 355 2550

The views in this document represents that of the author and may not represent those of Gen Re. Also note that given the significant uncertainty involved with the parameters, data and methodology care should be taken with these numbers and any use of these numbers.

References

[1]

A. Cori, N. M. Ferguson, C. Fraser, and S. Cauchemez, “A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics,” American Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 178, no. 9, pp. 1505–1512, Sep. 2013, doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt133.

[2]

A. Cori, EpiEstim: A package to estimate time varying reproduction numbers from epidemic curves. 2013.

[3]

J. O’Brien et al., “Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia,” COVID-19-data-aus. https://www.covid19data.com.au, 2021.