1 Introduction

This paper contains estimates for the effective reproduction number \(R_{t,m}\) over time \(t\) in various nations and other regions \(m\) of United Kingdom. This is done using the methodology as described in [1]. These have been implemented in R using EpiEstim package [2] which is what is used here. The methodology and assumptions are described in more detail here.

This paper and itโ€™s results should be updated roughly daily and is available online.

2 Updates

As this paper is updated over time this section will summarise significant changes. The code producing this paper is tracked using Git. The Git commit hash for this project at the time of generating this paper was 23afed4db62d9f1dec33612783ec9e10150e9e97.

The following updates have been made:

  • On 27 May 2021 methodology was updated to use up to date cases but an allowance for late reporting was added.
  • Further on 28 May 2021 plots and maps were updated to consistently not plot reproduction number estimates where the 95% confidence interval associated with that estimate is wider than 1.
  • A further update on 29 May 2021 was made. All plots and maps were updated to consistently not plot reproduction number estimates where the 95% confidence interval associated with that estimate is wider than 1.
  • On 9 January 2022 improvements to allowance for late reproted data was made.

3 Data

3.1 Source

Data is obtained [3]. This contains the daily cases, hospital admissions and deaths for United Kingdom by various geographies. Here the data is accessed by specimen date, admission date and date of death.

All data prior to 1 March 2020 are removed.

3.2 Allowance for late reporting

Based on a history of the data collected patterns of late reporting are developed. A maximum delay in reporting of 21 days is assumed and the last 28 days of reporting data is used to estimate the late reported cases, admissions and deaths.

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'nation_code', 'type'. You can override using the `.groups` argument.

4 Methodology

The methodology is described in detail here.

5 Results by Nation

5.1 Cases

Below a 7-day moving average of daily case count on a log scale by nation is plotted:

Daily Cases by Nation (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by Nation (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by Nation for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by Nation for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.2 Admissions

Below we plot cumulative hospital admissions on a log scale.

Daily Admissions by Nation (7-day moving average)

Daily Admissions by Nation (7-day moving average)

Daily Admissions by Nation for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Daily Admissions by Nation for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

5.3 Deaths

Below a 14-day moving average of daily deaths by nation on a log scale is plotted:

Daily Deaths by Nation (14-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by Nation (14-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by Nation for Last 60-days (14-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by Nation for Last 60-days (14-day moving average)

5.4 Current Reproduction Number Estimates by Nation

Below current (last weekly) reproduction number estimates are tabulated by nation.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Nation
Nation Estimate Type Daily Count (Last Week) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
England cases 77,487 2022-01-13 0.58 [0.55 - 0.62]
England admissions 2,901 2022-01-12 1.11 [1.08 - 1.14]
England deaths 1,138 2022-01-13 1.35 [1.26 - 1.44]
Northern Ireland cases 4,272 2022-01-13 0.66 [0.61 - 0.71]
Northern Ireland admissions 1,000 2022-01-13 1.40 [1.31 - 1.50]
Northern Ireland deaths 975 2022-01-13 1.44 [1.34 - 1.56]
Scotland cases 5,546 2022-01-13 0.43 [0.40 - 0.47]
Scotland admissions 945 2022-01-10 1.45 [1.35 - 1.58]
Scotland deaths 978 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.55]
Wales cases 3,163 2022-01-13 0.40 [0.37 - 0.45]
Wales admissions 1,013 2022-01-13 1.40 [1.31 - 1.52]
Wales deaths 975 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.55]
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Nation

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Nation

5.5 Maps of Effective Reproduction Number

Below we plot the current effective reproduction number on maps with boundaries provided by [4]. Data where the confidence interval for the reproduction number is wider than 1 are excluded (shown as missing on the map).

5.5.1 Cases

5.5.2 Admissions

5.5.3 Deaths

5.6 Graphs over Time

Below we plot results for each nation.

5.6.1 England

5.6.2 Northern Ireland

5.6.3 Scotland

5.6.4 Wales

6 Results by Region

6.1 Cases

Below we daily case count is plotted on a log scale by region:

Daily Cases by Region (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by Region (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by Region for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

Daily Cases by Region for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)

6.2 Deaths

Below a 14-day moving average of daily deaths by region is plotted on a log scale:

Daily Deaths by Region (14-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by Region (14-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by Region for Last 60-days (14-day moving average)

Daily Deaths by Region for Last 60-days (14-day moving average)

6.3 Current Reproduction Number Estimates by Region

Below current (last weekly) reproduction number estimates are tabulated by region.

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Region
Region Estimate Type Daily Count (Last Week) Week Ending Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval]
Northern Ireland cases 4,272 2022-01-13 0.66 [0.61 - 0.71]
Northern Ireland deaths 975 2022-01-13 1.44 [1.34 - 1.56]
Scotland cases 5,546 2022-01-13 0.43 [0.40 - 0.47]
Scotland deaths 978 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.55]
Wales cases 3,163 2022-01-13 0.40 [0.37 - 0.45]
Wales deaths 975 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.55]
North East cases 6,707 2022-01-13 0.67 [0.64 - 0.71]
North East deaths 978 2022-01-13 1.44 [1.33 - 1.56]
North West cases 11,850 2022-01-13 0.53 [0.50 - 0.58]
North West deaths 1,003 2022-01-13 1.42 [1.31 - 1.53]
Yorkshire and The Humber cases 9,625 2022-01-13 0.61 [0.59 - 0.66]
Yorkshire and The Humber deaths 989 2022-01-13 1.44 [1.32 - 1.56]
East Midlands cases 7,376 2022-01-13 0.62 [0.59 - 0.66]
East Midlands deaths 987 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.31 - 1.55]
West Midlands cases 9,823 2022-01-13 0.64 [0.61 - 0.68]
West Midlands deaths 987 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.56]
East of England cases 8,439 2022-01-13 0.63 [0.60 - 0.67]
East of England deaths 986 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.53]
London cases 11,887 2022-01-13 0.60 [0.58 - 0.64]
London deaths 998 2022-01-13 1.42 [1.31 - 1.53]
South East cases 11,828 2022-01-13 0.64 [0.62 - 0.68]
South East deaths 987 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.32 - 1.54]
South West cases 7,107 2022-01-13 0.67 [0.64 - 0.71]
South West deaths 981 2022-01-13 1.43 [1.33 - 1.54]
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Region

Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Region

6.4 Maps of Effective Reproduction Number

Below we plot the current effective reproduction number on maps with boundaries provided by [5]. Data where the confidence interval for the reproduction number is wider than 1 are excluded (shown as missing on the map).

6.4.1 Cases