This paper contains estimates for the effective reproduction number
\(R_{t,m}\) over time \(t\) in various nations and other regions
\(m\) of United Kingdom. This is done
using the methodology as described in [1].
These have been implemented in R using EpiEstim
package
[2] which is what is used here. The
methodology and assumptions are described in more detail here.
This paper and it’s results should be updated roughly daily and is available online.
As this paper is updated over time this section will summarise significant changes. The code producing this paper is tracked using Git. The Git commit hash for this project at the time of generating this paper was f375c64277b7e5fd535c882031ceca88dc14db31.
The following updates have been made:
Data is obtained [3]. This contains the daily cases, hospital admissions and deaths for United Kingdom by various geographies. Here the data is accessed by specimen date, admission date and date of death.
All data prior to 1 March 2020 are removed.
Based on a history of the data collected patterns of late reporting are developed. A maximum delay in reporting of 21 days is assumed and the last 28 days of reporting data is used to estimate the late reported cases, admissions and deaths.
The methodology is described in detail here.
Below a 7-day moving average of daily case count on a log scale by nation is plotted:
Daily Cases by Nation (7-day moving average)
Daily Cases by Nation for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)
Below we plot cumulative hospital admissions on a log scale.
Daily Admissions by Nation (7-day moving average)
Daily Admissions by Nation for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)
Below a 14-day moving average of daily deaths by nation on a log scale is plotted:
Daily Deaths by Nation (14-day moving average)
Daily Deaths by Nation for Last 60-days (14-day moving average)
Below current (last weekly) reproduction number estimates are tabulated by nation.
Nation | Estimate Type | Daily Count (Last Week) | Week Ending | Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval] |
---|---|---|---|---|
England | cases | 8,712 | 2022-12-21 | 1.50 [1.39 - 1.60] |
England | admissions | 1,528 | 2022-12-19 | 1.72 [1.57 - 1.87] |
England | deaths | 132 | 2022-12-19 | 1.28 [1.17 - 1.39] |
Northern Ireland | cases | 260 | 2022-05-19 | 0.93 [0.88 - 0.97] |
Northern Ireland | admissions | 23 | 2022-12-15 | 1.63 [1.35 - 1.93] |
Northern Ireland | deaths | 1 | 2022-05-19 | 0.99 [0.45 - 1.74] |
Scotland | cases | 623 | 2022-12-18 | 1.63 [1.50 - 1.76] |
Scotland | admissions | 53 | 2022-09-11 | 0.89 [0.81 - 0.99] |
Scotland | deaths | 2 | 2022-06-01 | 0.44 [0.25 - 0.69] |
Wales | cases | 229 | 2022-12-21 | 1.43 [1.28 - 1.60] |
Wales | admissions | 20 | 2022-12-20 | 1.45 [1.21 - 1.72] |
Wales | deaths | 3 | 2022-12-21 | 1.31 [0.85 - 1.89] |
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Nation
Below we plot the current effective reproduction number on maps with boundaries provided by [4]. Data where the confidence interval for the reproduction number is wider than 1 are excluded (shown as missing on the map).
Below we plot results for each nation.
Below we daily case count is plotted on a log scale by region:
Daily Cases by Region (7-day moving average)
Daily Cases by Region for Last 30-days (7-day moving average)
Below a 14-day moving average of daily deaths by region is plotted on a log scale:
Daily Deaths by Region (14-day moving average)
Daily Deaths by Region for Last 60-days (14-day moving average)
Below current (last weekly) reproduction number estimates are tabulated by region.
Region | Estimate Type | Daily Count (Last Week) | Week Ending | Reproduction Number [95% Confidence Interval] |
---|---|---|---|---|
Northern Ireland | cases | 260 | 2022-05-19 | 0.93 [0.88 - 0.97] |
Northern Ireland | deaths | 1 | 2022-05-19 | 0.99 [0.45 - 1.74] |
Scotland | cases | 623 | 2022-12-18 | 1.63 [1.50 - 1.76] |
Scotland | deaths | 2 | 2022-06-01 | 0.44 [0.25 - 0.69] |
Wales | cases | 229 | 2022-12-21 | 1.43 [1.28 - 1.60] |
Wales | deaths | 3 | 2022-12-21 | 1.31 [0.85 - 1.89] |
North East | cases | 324 | 2022-12-21 | 1.51 [1.39 - 1.63] |
North East | deaths | 6 | 2022-12-19 | 1.23 [0.87 - 1.65] |
North West | cases | 943 | 2022-12-21 | 1.40 [1.31 - 1.49] |
North West | deaths | 19 | 2022-12-19 | 1.51 [1.23 - 1.82] |
Yorkshire and The Humber | cases | 667 | 2022-12-21 | 1.51 [1.39 - 1.62] |
Yorkshire and The Humber | deaths | 12 | 2022-12-19 | 1.40 [1.11 - 1.73] |
East Midlands | cases | 752 | 2022-12-21 | 1.48 [1.36 - 1.59] |
East Midlands | deaths | 13 | 2022-12-19 | 1.40 [1.11 - 1.72] |
West Midlands | cases | 830 | 2022-12-21 | 1.45 [1.35 - 1.54] |
West Midlands | deaths | 13 | 2022-12-19 | 1.24 [1.00 - 1.51] |
East of England | cases | 1,048 | 2022-12-21 | 1.61 [1.47 - 1.75] |
East of England | deaths | 13 | 2022-12-19 | 1.47 [1.17 - 1.81] |
London | cases | 940 | 2022-12-21 | 1.43 [1.33 - 1.52] |
London | deaths | 12 | 2022-12-19 | 1.28 [1.02 - 1.57] |
South East | cases | 1,716 | 2022-12-21 | 1.53 [1.42 - 1.66] |
South East | deaths | 19 | 2022-12-19 | 1.19 [0.98 - 1.41] |
South West | cases | 1,415 | 2022-12-21 | 1.60 [1.45 - 1.74] |
South West | deaths | 16 | 2022-12-19 | 1.20 [0.97 - 1.45] |
Estimated Effective Reproduction Number by Region
Below we plot the current effective reproduction number on maps with boundaries provided by [5]. Data where the confidence interval for the reproduction number is wider than 1 are excluded (shown as missing on the map).