Modelling COVID-19 in South Africa and speculations on 2nd Wave

COVID-19 Oct 31, 2020

I spoke at the Actuarial Society of South Africa's Convention where I presented a paper based on my model for COVID-19 in South Africa.  A recording of my session is available at actuview (password required).

Some articles were published after the conference that include a few comments from me:

Second coronavirus wave likely, but it may be less deadly
A recent survey in the Western Cape, found 40% of people at government clinics for other care had SARS-Cov-2 antibodies, suggesting there has already been extensive spread of the disease
Actuarial Society: SA’s second wave of pandemic likely to be less deadly - Medical Brief
A second wave of coronavirus infections in South Africa is likely to be less deadly than the first, according to the expert co-ordinating the Actuarial Society of SA’s modelling work on COVID-19, reports Business Day. While South Africa has seen a steady decline in the key indicators used to gauge t…


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